Greenhouse Gases and Economic Development: An Empirical Approach to Defining Goals

Publication Date: February 2005

Publisher: Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Author(s):

Research Area: Environment

Type:

Abstract:

This analysis identifies those nations that have combined the highest per capita GDPs with the lowest intensities of greenhouse gas emissions. Taking those nations as exemplars, it then examines possible outcomes from pursuing competing goals -- economic growth and development versus constraining greenhouse gases -- that are confounding efforts, such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol, to address global climate change.

Eight nations -- Austria, France, Italy, Iceland, Luxembourg, Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland -- combine high per capita GDP (among the top-20 nations) with the lowest intensity of greenhouse gas emissions of all nations (between 107 and 70 tons per million $ GDP). Taking the lower level of their per capita GDP ($23,500) and an intensity of 100, this analysis examines the greenhouse gas emission implications of a world achieving those levels of economic activity and greenhouse gas intensity.

The relationship of population, economic growth, and emissions is defined by: (population) x (per capita GDP) x (intensity) = emissions. This relationship can be applied globally, to individual nations, or to groups of nations. One can calculate the implications of different population levels, different economic development levels, different emissions targets, etc. Obviously if population rises, emissions will rise unless per capita GDP and/or intensity decrease enough to offset the rise; likewise, if per capita GDP rises, emissions will rise unless intensity (and/or population) decrease enough to offset it.

With the formula, one could test numerous variations; this analysis focuses on the one empirically-based set, a global per capita GDP of $23,500, an intensity of 100, and the 2000 world population of 6 billion. With those assumptions, greenhouse gas emissions would be 14.1 billion tons per year, about 55% more than the 9.1 billion tons actually emitted in 2000.

Whether global greenhouse gas emissions of 14.1 billion tons per year (or more as population increases) would pose a threat of global warming sufficient to justify impeding that economic development and/or stimulating even more aggressive action to improve greenhouse gas intensity awaits growing scientific understanding and the decisions of world leaders -- and the manifestation of events.

For some, the finding that one can construct an empirically based approach that achieves a standard of living for 6 billion people equal to several European nations while not increasing global greenhouse gas emissions by more than about 55% will be optimistic. For others, the emissions level may appear unacceptable -- implying either constraints on economic growth or even more aggressive improvements in intensity. For still others, any worry about greenhouse gas emissions is misdirected.

This report will not be updated.