China: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles

Publication Date: August 2000

Publisher: Library of Congress. Congressional Research Service

Author(s):

Research Area: Military and defense

Type:

Coverage: China

Abstract:

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is believed to have deployed a nuclear-armed missile force of over 100 nuclear warheads, with additional warheads in storage. Deployed in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)’s Second Artillery, the nuclear-armed ballistic missiles currently launch single warheads. China’s nuclear-armed missile force is deployed with about 25 launchers for the limited-range DF-4 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), about 25 launchers for the long-range DF-5A ICBM, about 40 launchers for the older DF-3A medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM), and about 50 launchers for the mobile, solid-fuel DF-21 MRBM. (There may be multiple missiles that could be re-loaded to some of the launchers.) Most of the PLA’s ICBMs are believed to be targeted at U.S. cities as part of the PRC’s second-strike, counter-value, minimum deterrence doctrine, officially declared as the “no first use” policy. In April 1999, President Clinton stated that the PRC has fewer than two dozen long-range nuclear weapons, compared to 6,000 in the U.S. arsenal.

China’s program to deploy the JL-1 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) on a Xia-class nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) is not yet successful. In the future, the PLA plans to deploy after 2000 or 2005 the new, more survivable and reliable DF-31 ICBM with a lighter warhead and the JL-2 SLBM on the new Type 094 SSBN. The DF-31, China’s first land-mobile, solid-fuel ICBM, was first tested in August 1999. In addition, China plans to deploy the land-mobile, longer-range DF-41 ICBM, perhaps after 2010.

There are also hundreds of increasingly accurate and mobile DF-21A MRBMs and M-9, M-11, and M-7 short-range ballistic missiles for theater operations, likely armed with conventional warheads. Since the mid-1990s, the PLA’s dramatic buildup and launches (in 1995-96) of theater missiles have already spurred calls for meeting Taiwan’s missile defense needs. In March 2000, Admiral Dennis Blair, Commander-in-Chief of the Pacific Command, publicly confirmed that the PLA has deployed about 200 ballistic missiles against Taiwan and is adding 50 more a year.

The PLA’s cruise missiles have ranges up to 200 km. (125 mi.), and of these, the HY-3 and the SS-N-22 Sunburn (that Russia supplied in 2000) are supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles. However, China is reportedly developing longer-range, land attack cruise missiles (LACMs). In 1997, the Department of Defense reported that China has placed priority on developing LACMs “for theater warfighting and strategic attack.” China’s emphasis on its own LACM programs reportedly has been influenced by the U.S. military’s success in using Tomahawk missiles for precision strikes during the 1991 Persian Gulf War and in conflicts since that war.

While clearly modernizing and expanding its ballistic and cruise missile forces, however, it is uncertain whether China will substantially build up its currently limited strategic ICBM forces. In 1999, the intelligence community predicted that, by 2015, the PLA is likely to have “a few tens” of missiles with smaller nuclear warheads (partly benefitting from stolen U.S. technology) that are capable of targeting the United States. The question remains whether the PRC would further expand its strategic force to dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of nuclear warheads.