Beijing Drama: China's Governance Crisis and Bush's New Challenge

Publication Date: November 2002

Publisher: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Author(s): Minxin Pei

Research Area: Government; Politics

Type: Brief

Coverage: China

Abstract:

China's leadership transition occurs at a critical juncture. Beijing's new leaders face an emerging governance crisis that consists of a decaying ruling party, deteriorating state capacity, and brewing regime-society tensions. This crisis originates in the fundamental incompatibility between the Chinese Communist Party's goal of perpetuating one-party rule and the market-oriented reforms it has pursued to achieve this goal. If left unresolved, China's governance crisis could lead to long-term stagnation and social instability. Beijing's new leaders must confront this crisis with long-delayed political reforms. Moreover, China's internal weakness poses a difficult challenge to the Bush administration and calls for a rethinking of the assumptions underlying Washington's China policy.